Do we need a Marshal Plan for the Russians after the Ukraine war? And is Putin losing power?
A week after the Ukraine war started, and the Russians failed to seize Kiev, I said that Putin will lose power within 3 years. I still think that he can't last. The embarrassment of Not conquering Ukraine within a couple weeks shows weakness and poor judgement. In Russian politics, weakness means the wolf pack will soon be at your throat.
His sitting so far from all his staff shows a fear of assassination. Sneaking in a tiny pistol might work, but hitting a target the size of a shriveled heart or a swollen head from a short barrel pistol at 10 or more feet is challenging. But the distancing shows a fear and that means Russian politicians are looking for opportunities and he knows it. The fear is justified. Either someone will succeed in taking him out or his health will decline from living with increasing tension and paranoia.
The big question now is what will Putin do on his way down?
What options does he have for a graceful exit that lets him live? Can he retains some power and wealth? Or is he looking at his own death and therefore has nothing to lose? If he has nothing to lose, who will he take with him? Will he try to launch a nuclear war as revenge on the world? Will the next Russian leader be able to stop him?
So what "Out" can we give him to get him to withdraw from the Ukraine and step back from escalating war, without giving him a "Victory" he could use to cement his power and control?
The same question goes for the Russian people - if the are stuck in poverty and have nothing to lose the next totalitarian leader will have popular support. And they have little to lose from aggression and war. Can we develop a "Marshal Plan" for Russia if they withdraw from Ukraine and stop military expansion? Give them economic incentives to lose in case of conflict.
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